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152.4.1.2 Diurnal Temperature Range
In AR4 diurnal temperature range (DTR) was found, globally, to have narrowed since 1950, with minimum daily temperatures increasing faster than maximum daily temperatures. However, significant multi-decadal variability was highlighted including a recent period from 1997 to 2004 of no change, as both maximum and minimum temperatures rose at similar rates. The Technical Summary of AR4 highlighted changes in DTR and their causes as a key uncertainty. Since AR4, uncertainties in DTR and its physical interpretation have become even more apparent. No dedicated global analysis of DTR has been undertaken subsequent to Vose et al. (2005a), although global behaviour has been discussed in two broader ranging analyses. Rohde et al. (2012) and Wild et al. (2007) note an apparent reversal since the mid-1980s; with DTR subsequently increasing. This decline and subsequent increase in DTR over global land surfaces is qualitatively consistent with the dimming and subsequent brightening noted in Section 2.3.3.1. Donat et al. (2013c) using HadEX2 (Section 2.6) find significant decreasing DTR trends in more than half of the land areas assessed but less than 10% of land with significant increases since 1951. Available trend estimates (–0.04 ± 0.01°C per decade over 1950–2011 (Rohde et al., 2013b) and –0.066°C per decade over 1950–2004 (Vose et al., 2005a)) are much smaller than global mean LSAT average temperature trends over 1951–2012 (Table 2.4). It therefore logically follows that globally averaged maximum and minimum temperatures over land have both increased by in excess of 0.1°C per decade since 1950. Regionally, Makowski et al. (2008) found that DTR behaviour in Europe over 1950 to 2005 changed from a decrease to an increase in the 1970s in Western Europe and in the 1980s in Eastern Europe. Sen Roy and Balling (2005) found significant increases in both maximum and minimum temperatures for India, but little change in DTR over 1931– 2002. Christy et al. (2009) reported that for East Africa there has been no pause in the narrowing of DTR in recent decades. Zhou and Ren (2011) reported a significant decrease in DTR over mainland China of –0.15°C per decade during 1961–2008. Various investigators (e.g., Christy et al. (2009), Pielke and Matsui (2005), Zhou and Ren (2011)) have raised doubts about the physical interpretation of minimum temperature trends, hypothesizing that microclimate and local atmospheric composition impacts are more apparent because the dynamical mixing at night is much reduced. Parker (2006) investigated this issue arguing that if data were affected in this way, then a trend difference would be expected between calm and windy nights. However, he found no such minimum temperature differences on a global average basis. Using more complex boundary layer modelling techniques, Steeneveld et al. (2011) and McNider et al. (2012) showed much lower sensitivity to windspeed variations than posited by Pielke and Matsui but both concluded that boundary layer understanding was key to understanding the minimum temperature changes. Data analysis and long-term side-by-side instrumentation field studies show that real non-climatic data artefacts certainly affect maximum and minimum differently in the raw records for both recent (Fall et al., 2011; Williams et al., 2012) and older (Bohm et al., 2010; Brunet et al., 2011) records. Hence there could be issues over interpretation of apparent DTR trends and variability in many regions (Christy et al., 2006, 2009; Fall et al., 2011; Zhou and Ren, 2011; Williams et al., 2012), particularly when accompanied by regional-scale land-use/ land-cover (LULC) changes (Christy et al., 2006). In summary, confidence is medium in reported decreases in observed global DTR, noted as a key uncertainty in AR4. Several recent analyses of the raw data on which many previous analyses were based point to the potential for biases that differently affect maximum and minimum average temperatures. However, apparent changes in DTR are much smaller than reported changes in average temperatures and therefore it is virtually certain that maximum and minimum temperatures have increased since 1950.